Peace Time (Virginia P. Fortna 저) 읽기

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Peace Time

저자

Fortna, Virginia Page 지음

출판사

Princeton University Press | 2001-01-01 출간

카테고리

예술/건축

책소개

Why do cease-fire agreements someti...

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(대체 카테고리가 왜 예술/건축이지... -_-?)

풀 타이틀은 <Peace Time: Cease-Fire Agreements and the Durability of Peace>

병원에서의 무료함을 메꾸기 위해 교수님한테 책 리스트를 받아왔는데 그 중 한 권. 아마존 배송 예정일보다 빨리 도착해서 모셔올 수 있었다. IR 공부하는 사람들이라면 다 읽는 책이라고 하지만, 공부하는 사람들의 평균 지성에 나는 언제쯤 미칠수 있을까 좌절하며 읽기 시작했는데.. 그래도 국제정치 수업 두 학기 들었다고 아예 모르는 얘기는 아니라서 느릿느릿 진도를 빼고 있다.

제일 안 넘어가는 Ch.1 목차만 보면..

A Theory of Agreements and the Durability of Peace

I. Cooperation Theory and Peace Agreements

 1. Obstacles to Peace

  (1) Incentives to Attack

  (2) Fear of Attack

  (3) Accidents and Involuntary Defection

  (4) Distribution and Relative Gains

 2. Strategies for Improving the Prospects for Peace

  (1) Raising the Cost of Attack

  (2) Reducing Uncertainty about Actions and Intentions

  (3) Preventing and Controlling Accidents

 3. Peace Mechanisms

  (1) Phyisical Constraints

   Hypothesis 1: Withdrawal of forces from the cease-fire line yields more durable peace.

   Hyp 2: Peace lasts longer when demilitarized zones are set up.

   Hyp 3: Arms control measures increase the durability of peace.

   Hyp 4: Measures to prevent involuntary defection make peace more stable.

  (2) The Role of Outsiders: Peacekeeping and Third-Party Guarantees

   Hyp 1: Peace is more likely to last if international peace keepers are present.

   Hyp 2: Third-party guarantees make peace more durable.

  (3) Communication and Signaling

   Hyp 1: Peace is more durable when confidence-building measures are implemented.

   Hyp 2: Dispute resolution procedures make peace last longer.

   Hyp 3: More specific cease-fire agreements are morel likely to hold.

   Hyp 4: Formal agreements lead to more durable peace than tacit agreements.

   Hyp 5: All else equal, the stronger the agreement implemented, the longer peace lasts.

  (4) Political Settlement

   Hyp: Peace agreements that settle political issues lead to more durable peace than military armistice or cease-fire

          agreement

II. Agreements and the Baseline Prospects for Peace: A Counterargument and Rebuttal

 Hyp 1: Strong agreements are concluded when the baseline prospects for peace are relatively good.

 Hyp 2: Strong agreements are concluded when the baseline prospects for peace are relatively dim.

III. The Baseline Prospects for Peace: Situational Variables

Summary of the Argument

 

이상인데, 대충 무슨 얘기가 나올까 짐작은 가는데 워낙 잘 쓰여진 책이라고 하니 논리 전개 방식을 들여다보는 게 목표. 앞으로는 사례적용하면서 하나씩 살펴보겠지? 으음.. 퇴원 전까지 다 읽긴 읽을 수 있을까...